Donald Trump’s Curious Math: Addition by Division

As America heads into the stretch of its nomination free-for-all formerly known as presidential campaigning, the emotion of the Donald Trump candidacy deserves a bit of behavioral dissection.

The flamboyant businessman is single-handedly unlocking dormant emotion and stoking frustration into activism that threatens to change us from the United States of America to the Divided States of America. Whether you like Trump or do not, he is brilliantly executing a political game plan that is unprecedented in American politics.

The man can sell

A master salesman, Trump is proving his skills on a national level. He understands exactly what differentiators to emphasize and executes his strategy with discipline.

Trump has earned his way to the catbird seat by identifying his niche and high-impact messages, and pounding them home. His discipline in execution is admirable.

Trump and fear

Trump hammers home a theme of “doom and gloom,” painting a picture of America as a struggling nation in dire straits.

Opponents point out that Trump has made billions during the Obama presidency.

Supporters say Trump has done so because he’s the Wizard of Oz. He succeeds because he’s Donald Trump.

Positioning

People do things for one of two reasons, the pursuit of a positive reward or the avoidance of a negative consequence. Fear is a far stronger political motivator than hope, because fear always inspires more action than hope.

Here the contrast between Obama’s original election campaign and Trump’s current one is stark. Obama was elected by selling hope to a nation sunk in the quagmire of a horrendous recession. Trump ignores hope. Trump sells fear.

Arguments & fisticuffs at rallies

People argue over political candidates for several reasons, but Trump’s two igniters are fear and frustration. He zeroed in on both early, and sells without diluting his message in other distracting directions.

The escalating conflicts at rallies are based on the fear Trump stokes, which occurs when voters filter down what they hear to their own personal level, and then draw conclusions based on what his promises might mean to them.

The gap between America’s ultra-rich and poor is dangerously wide and widening, and our middle class is shrinking. For most workers, wages are flat and upward American Dream opportunities are perceived as limited.

The primary concern of people who have little is to protect themselves. They see Trump—a silver-spooned son born into unfathomable wealth—as a threat who relates to the rich, not those struggling to get by.

It is hard to be a minority in America, regardless of citizenship. Trump has never known what is like to travel that difficult uphill road, so trusting him to be custodian of a positive outcome is a bit of a stretch, especially with what to this point has been at times a bombastic, insult-laced isolationist attitude.

Emotions are rising at these events and very well may escalate.

Trump and frustration

What has been especially eye opening as the Republican primary campaign has unfolded is how brilliantly Trump has tapped into the frustrations of the voting populace. Whether you like Trump or despise the guy, he has identified a selling advantage and clearly differentiated himself from his competitors. Trump has positioned himself perfectly to stoke frustration’s smoldering embers of emotion.

Frustration, by nature, is an emotional position people reach that is based upon accumulated data points over time. Trumps actions and messages are akin to a fireplace poker jabbing logs to inspire more flames. He knows exactly what he is doing and is terrifically skilled at execution.

Not all frustration is politically inspired. There are many catalysts. In the case of Trump running for office, he is tapping into a geyser of suppressed emotion.

The big domino

The big domino a majority of Americans want toppled over, the one that will lead to knocking down many subsequent and necessary others, is political gridlock. Trapped inside that gridlock are action-oriented solutions for the nation and world’s collective good.

Americans are not stupid; they know good ideas exist in both parties party want collaborative cohesion. They are not getting it, and millions of voters are sick of career politicians who collect checks, benefits, and pensions while prioritizing special interests and solving for nothing.

There are systemic reasons this gridlock has become a national embarrassment, so until those change, Trump, even as president, will not be able to govern with the grandiose vision he paints.

Rhetoric will not solve these blockages, nor will one man’s loud opinion on what needs to be done. Washington simply does not work that way.

Until the system changes in ways such as term limits at all levels, including the Supreme Court, along with the elimination of big money influence on Capitol Hill, the nation will slothfully grind along regardless who is president. The quality of Capitol Hill governance has steadily backslid ever since deficit spending became an afterthought to the personal and party-centric political agendas of those in charge.

Fiduciary irresponsibility of government is a collateral offshoot of Washington’s current nature of business.

Tens of millions of American voters believe significant change should occur via smart collaborative support of everyone in elected office, regardless of party affiliation. Trump claims he is the guy to get it done. He has fractured his own party and drawn a line in the sand against the Democrats, so watching how he pulls that off would prove interesting.

Americans are fed up with excuses. Americans want accountability. Trump tapped into this like a dentist poking around in your mouth and hook-stabbing a deep cavity. The dentist struck a nerve, knows it, and keeps digging. So does Trump.

Trump is selling a concept: the concept that he, a high-profile TV personality outsider with a profitable track record in industry can change the nation and end political frustration. Watching him selling this has been extraordinary to watch.

Trump is selling concepts, not solutions, but the shrewdness of his positioning in contrast to his beatable primary opponents, each of whom got lost in the weeds explaining how he would go about doing things, has been brilliant.

Trump is not selling the how connected to specifics of what he will do. He knows there is danger in the weeds. As long as he stays big picture, he can get the nomination.

Once nominated, his sales strategy will change. But until he needs to change it, he will not, and from the looks of things, he may not have to.

We should not kid ourselves. Trump is, and always has been, a shrewd political animal. He is not a novice to the game. For him there was never a reason to take a pay cut to run for any public office other than the top job, which trades more cash—which he does not need—for more power, which is what he truly craves.

The principle of human behavior

What people think drives how they feel, but how they feel drives what they do.

Trump knows this, which is why his campaign stokes emotion. Facts that re judged not self-serving are ignored or waved away as irrelevant. Facts lead to opinions but if you can influence the opinion without the facts, you do not need to use them.

This blasé attitude toward openness and revelation is a luxury a front-runner has that others do not. This is also why Trump shares little specifics and parries tactic-related questions with his “go to” line that he will negotiate everything.

The problem with that, of course, is that sometimes people don’t want to negotiate.

Negotiation relationships require two sides willing to make a deal neither side has to like but both can actually live with. A win/lose approach creates friction and all signs point to Trump’s style being that way domestically and globally. It is fairly obvious that much of what he promises to negotiate cannot be, but throughout the primary season voters have not seemed to care. He sets the hook with his approach, not its doability.

The herd mentality

People are, by nature, herd animals and herd animals seek leaders to follow. Trump knows this and also knows that no one doubts he is one.

We are a decentralized democracy, not a monarchy, but Trump uses his powerful personality to pound home a strong leadership persona.

A master brand builder, one of the true greats our voting generations have seen, he is the face of his brand. He sold himself as a New York personality, an American personality, and now as a global figure. He is selling what has always worked, which is identifying himself as a decisive “buck stops here” leader. People follow leaders. Trump has been superb separating himself for the original dozen who sought the Republican nomination by working hard to lead the herd.

The stubbornness of political supporters

Once a voter decides which candidate he or she will support, their opinion rarely changes. The reason is called “reaffirming evidence,” which means that in subsequent interactions such as debates or interviews, the voter looks for reasons to support that her or she is correct in backing that particular candidate.

People do not seek reasons to prove their opinion is wrong.

Since we find what we look for in any aspect of life, once the emotional voting decision is made, reaffirming evidence behaviors make it very difficult for other candidates to change an opinion.

This is why Trump’s followers, most of whom are fed up with the political status quo, are fiercely loyal. It has been very interesting to watch them wave off or ignore fact-based evidence that seem to point to the notion that he, too, is a very flawed candidate. Logic, it would seem, surely must overlay emotion. It does for the undecided, but not for those who have already bought. For voters who have already decided, logic cannot overlay emotion. Until the emotion is defused, a logical argument will always fall upon deaf ears.

Supporters for every candidate are this way. They dig in to defend their opinion as being right and see only what they choose to see.

Trump’s supporters happen to be the most vocal demonstrators of this behavioral principle, as they are the most frustrated and the man they follow is a master rabble-rouser.

What will happen if Trump is the Republican nominee?

If nominated, Trump’s sales strategy will immediately reposition for the general election. He is an ultra-competitive guy who does not like to lose and would enter the race a clear underdog. The competitor will be different, so the message and tactics must be too.

Trump’s nomination would create a supreme test for the staid and fragmented Republican party that creates a difficult scruples question: Because Trump is not one of them, must they pretend he is?

History would say yes, they will fake it.

But this campaign has no political comparative. The rules are different and so might the Republican response.

Because Trump is a polarizing “like or don’t like” candidate—few are unopinionated—he must reposition for the general election. This will not be a problem. He is a master salesman for whom each opportunity creates a brand new chess game against a worthy foe. He will play without fear and with the confidence to win. His strategy and execution will be interesting to watch.

What will happen if Trump loses out in a brokered convention?

Defeat would multiply Trump’s riches exponentially, as his brand will blast skyward like a Saturn V rocket and he will capitalize accordingly. He has self-created billions in free publicity throughout the campaign and if there is one thing everyone agrees on concerning Donald Trump, it is that the man certainly knows how to convert pub into money.

Regardless how the elections play out, Trump has put on a master class in how to sell in the ugly world of American politics.

 

In closing, I hope everyone follows the candidates closely, makes an informed decision, and takes the time to vote. When everyone does, the right person tends to win.